As the referendum on the proposed Voice to Parliament edges closer, research shows Australians are more divided than ever – and it spells a major problem.
Across the country, once famed for a strong sense of mateship, people are increasingly at odds with each other and political polarisation is taking root.
More than two-fifths of people feel Australia is more divided than a year ago, with the debate surrounding the Voice compounding a sense of division that has worsened amid a cost-of-living crisis and the lingering effects of the Covid pandemic.
Just a quarter of people see Australians as being united, the research found, and SenateSHJ managing partner Darren Behar said many feel we’re less likely to look out for each other.
There were similar findings in this year’s Edelman Trust Barometer, which found “a series of macro forces are weakening the country’s social fabric and creating increasing division in society”.
Almost half of Australians (45 per cent) say the nation is more divided today than in the past, it found.
Worryingly, 76 per cent of respondents said they were less likely to help someone who strongly disagreed with their views.
Tom Robinson, local chief executive of Edelman, warned Australia is “heading down an alarmingly divisive path”.
The Index shows the country now straddles the boundary between ‘moderately polarised’ and ‘in danger of severe polarisation’.
Deep divisions emerged during the Covid pandemic, with fiery protests from groups opposed to lockdowns and vaccine mandates becoming regular occurrences.
Polarisation on other social issues has also become evident in recent times, from immigration to LGBT rights, sometimes with ugly results.
In a speech to the Chifley Research Centre Conference in February, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed fear that the country could follow the United States down a path of social division.
Mr Albanese said Australia should “heed the warning” of the insurrection on the US Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump in January 2021 as well as an uprising in Brazil in January after the defeat of its conservative leader.
Those involved in the events “had fallen headlong into poisonous conspiracy theories” and Australia should work to prevent similar division here.
He warned that worsening polarisation and the rise of misinformation highlighted the need for democracy to be “nourished, protected, cared for, treated with respect”.
While he was hopeful that the Voice could be a unifying moment for the country, he expressed some concern about the efforts of the No campaign and its supporters in “pushing misinformation on social media, drumming up outrage, trying to start a culture war”.
If polling is anything to go by, Mr Albanese’s fears have been confirmed.
The Voice is splitting the country
In August last year, Mr Albanese released the proposed wording for a change to the Constitution to recognise Indigenous Australians.
Speaking at the Garma Festival, the PM announced a future referendum to add three sentences to the nation’s founding document, reading:
“1. There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.
“2. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to parliament and the executive government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
“3. The parliament shall, subject to this constitution, have power to make laws with respect to the composition, functions, powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.”
Polling conducted after that point showed high levels of support for the proposal, with Essential 65 per cent of voters were in favour.
In the time since, that support has collapsed.
The latest stark indication, a Freshwater Strategy poll conducted for the AFR last week, showed just 33 per cent of respondents plan to vote Yes, compared to 50 per cent intending to vote No.
Some 17 per cent remain undecided, but if that cohort is excluded, the No vote sits at 60 per cent.
“Unfortunately, the way in which the debate around the referendum is unfolding is leaving many feeling like there is little room for open discussion,” Senate SHJ’s Mr Behar said.
His research shows that those who feel the country is more divided have a sense that people are not being listened to. Just 29 per cent of respondents feel listened to.
Trust in communication from the government, media and big business is declining rapidly, he said.
Instead, three-quarters of people are turning to their own existing circles for information, contributing to a siloed effect that leaves little room for hearing differing views.
That division will inevitably worsen following the referendum, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at the United States Study Centre at the University of Sydney, said.
“If most Australians vote No, the country will be reeling,” Mr Wolpe wrote in an article for The Conversation.
“The victorious opponents of the Voice, with their echoes of Trumpism, will be poised to keep advancing their agenda. The default position of the political culture on race, reconciliation and equity will have gone backwards, making it harder to redress historical issues of racial disparities.”
Going down the American route
The US has long grappled with a worsening divide among its society, driven largely by socio-economic inequality.
Australia is far from immune by such pressures, with a new report last week by the Australian Council of Social Services and UNSW showing a sharp jump in wealth inequality over the past two decades.
It found the gap between those with the most and those with the least has “blown out”, with the average wealth of the highest 20 per cent of Aussies growing at four times the rate of the lowest.
“Left unchecked, growing wealth inequality threatens to exacerbate and entrench generational, spatial and social divisions in our community,” Cassandra Goldie, ACOSS chief executive, warned.
Evidence about the long-term effects of social division on American society gives “ample reason for concern”, according to the researchers Jennifer McCoy and Benjamin Press from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
At the top, deep political divides “have crippled efforts at legislative compromise” in Washington and eroded longstanding norms that ensure relative stability.
But these divides have consequences “far beyond the consequences of power”, pushing Americans to isolate themselves in “distinct and mutually exclusive political camps”.
“The rise of an ‘us versus them’ mindset and political identity in American sociopolitical life is evident in everything from the rise of highly partisan media to the decline in Americans’ willingness to marry someone from the opposing political party,” Ms McCoy and Mr Press wrote.
“Even more concerningly, these dynamics are contributing directly to a steep rise in political violence. Polarisation has already brought on serious problems.”
Commentary by Stephanie Forrest and Joshua Daymude from the Brookings Institute concurs with the assessment, warning that reducing extreme polarisation is “the key to stabilising democracy”.
Should nothing change, people will increasingly be divided into camps that are “unwilling to compromise or yield power to their opponents”.
Misinformation is fuelling division
Political polarisation has the potential to erode unity, shared goals and wellbeing across the world – including in Australia, research by a team of experts from the University of Western Australia and Queensland University of Technology found.
“Our research suggests the spread of misinformation on social media is part of the problem,” Associate Professor Richard Gruner from UWA and colleagues wrote in an article for The Conversation.
The team’s research found political misinformation spread on social media can whip up anger and distort people’s views, even when it seems sensational or biased.
“One might assume people would simply dismiss such information as baseless and avoid engaging with it. But our research has revealed a disconcerting trend: these misleading narratives can attract even more attention and interaction than accurate and less extreme information.
As misinformation continues to shape public debate, the repercussions of a highly polarised society, including political gridlock and social unrest, are increasingly felt.”
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