CINCINNATI — I don’t like surprise parties. Those who know me well are aware they should never throw me a surprise party for any occasion. Don’t even discuss it. Unless you are throwing a party celebrating ways to make me sad.
Here’s the thing about surprise parties: they steal the anticipation. They take away the excitement. They eliminate the burst of energy experienced just thinking about a big party that can get you through weeks of monotonous work days.
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I need that. I love that. In fact, I might love the conversations and anticipation of a big party more than the party itself. Maybe I’m in the minority here and have zero problems with those who do enjoy surprises. I get it.
Some parties, even those set up to be potentially the most exciting of your life, can be a letdown. You roll your ankle on the way in. Jay reheats old Arby’s in the microwave. The band experiments with a bagpipe player. Something.
The same theory applies to Bills at Bengals Monday night, one of the most anticipated games of the season and most hyped regular-season games in this city’s history. The conversations and excitement leading up to this game have been the best part.
Inevitably, as much extreme value as resides in the No. 1 seed and the AFC North title and as much as we claim will be gained watching these two powerhouses go head to head, the outcome will be more about what we learn than what’s decided.
Much like Cincinnati’s victory against Kansas City in Week 12 or win against the Chiefs in Week 17 last season, a win for the Bengals on MNF would be followed by two truths:
1. The Bengals can win the Super Bowl.
2. These teams will probably meet again.
Last year’s Week 17 game against the Chiefs was a breakthrough. A moment of arriving among the league’s elite, a place the Bengals hadn’t ascended to in decades. There’s a reason head coach Zac Taylor on Saturday called that win his favorite moment of 2022. It capped off years of climbing. Anything can happen once you reach that summit.
This year’s Week 17 wouldn’t be a breakthrough. It would be eight in a row. It would be a team already on a short list to win it all inching up that list.
Losing against the Bills wouldn’t kick the Bengals off the list. It would offer a lesson for what must change over the next month. Or what the specific dynamics of Bengals-Bills actually boils down to. The lack of history between these emergent AFC powers only adds to the intrigue. Whether the Bills secondary hawking Joe Burrow, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s plan for Josh Allen or risk-reward willingness from Taylor and Bills head coach Sean McDermott, we just don’t know how these two teams truly view each other. Or what details will expose lingering weaknesses.
GO DEEPER
Containing Josh Allen: Can Lou Anarumo, Bengals tame another beast?
Tonight, with the entire NFL world watching, we learn.
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The lessons garnered will serve as the foundation for the best Bengals team in a generation either making good on a first franchise championship or recalculating against the backdrop of squandering another year in Burrow’s rookie contract window.
Those lessons will be fascinating and meaningful. Then followed by, “see you in a few weeks with a tweaked game plan.”
The location of said game or participation of the Chiefs in this conversation will be consequences of tonight’s result. But really, in the big picture, this game will largely be about what we learn from it rather than the final result.
Both will be captivating to witness and gratifying to unpack.
From my seat, we will be talking and writing about the latest ascension of Burrow. The brighter the lights, the higher the leverage, the better he plays.
This game will be close. A Bengals clunker in Cleveland on Halloween is the only game where either of these teams lost by more than a field goal this season. When the defining moments of Monday Night Football unfold, I have a hard time betting against Burrow.
That’s a lesson I learned to live by in Week 17 a year ago. It happening again won’t be a surprise. And that’s something I can get behind.
Prediction: Bengals 34, Bills 31 (OT)
This Week in Burrow
The Bengals are 9-1 over the last 10 games (Week 6 at New Orleans) and Burrow continues to play at a ridiculous level. Josh Allen has been outstanding, as well, but when putting the defining quarterback winning stats up against each other, you can see where the nod goes to Burrow, who has heated up as Allen cooled off.
Last 10 games: Joe Burrow vs Josh Allen
| Statistic | Burrow | Allen |
|---|---|---|
EPA/game | 4th | 7th |
ANY/A | 4th | 14th |
PFF grade | 1st | 6th |
I’d also point out, Burrow has a 1.1 percent turnover-worthy play rate during that span, easily the best in the league. That number would hang as the best from Week 6 forward in a season in the last five years (Matt Ryan, 2017, 0.9 percent).
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Meanwhile, Allen ranks 27th out of 30 at 4.7 percent during the span. It’s hard not to point directly to that number when figuring out what the difference could be in Monday night’s game.
Combining Burrow’s high level of play with the fact Jalen Hurts will be sitting out this final stretch of the season and owning all the NFL eyeballs on Monday night, if Burrow puts up a monster game (think KC 2021), well, there would be a good chance he lands as the betting favorite for MVP on Tuesday.
I realize Burrow won’t admit to thinking about the MVP in general, let alone this week, but I was curious if it was ever something that crossed his mind coming up. Does a kid from Athens think about being the NFL MVP? It builds Hall of Fame cases, but does it live in the back of his brain as a box he eventually would like to check?
“I haven’t really thought about it, to be honest,” he said. “If you win it and you go to the ceremony, you’re usually not in the Super Bowl, because if you’re in the Super Bowl, you’re preparing and sitting in the hotel, so I’d rather have that one.”
Joe Burrow would bolster his MVP chances with a win over the Bills Monday night. (David Butler II / USA Today)Quotable
There’s been a more vocal confidence around the Bengals this week. There should be. This team has zero reason to doubt itself. Winning seven in a row, one shy of tying the franchise record, and doing so against a collection of division leaders and legends makes it all earned.
“They Gotta Play Us” is plastered on the wall on the way out of the locker room toward the field after being made into a large sign a few weeks back. The mantra worked and the team has been living it.
But, this week, as the talk of the offseason hype machine Bills and AFC top billing has been top of the conversion, there’s a different tone. There’s an extra willingness to voice an opinion.
Burrow said it with a soft touch and understated meaning on Thursday.
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“We’ve beaten everybody,” he said. “We know we can play against everybody. We’ve done it in the biggest moments.”
Joe Mixon was more blunt.
“What people got to realize and understand, we the big dog of the AFC and that’s just what it is,” he said. “For anything to happen, it goes through us.”
That’s the best part about the NFL and what makes this league so popular and the best reality show going. The hype eventually always gives way to reality. There are no rankings or committees or opinions that matter. There’s a scoreboard and standings.
When Burrow was asked about all the Bills hype this season, he pointed out he didn’t really pay any attention to it for just that reason.
“The offseason is the offseason,” he said. “People are going to find stuff to talk about. We knew the season was gonna play out the way it has.”
For the Bengals — and those who profit off NFL ratings — it couldn’t have played out much better.
Joe Mixon is confident that winning the AFC will have to go through the Bengals. (Katie Stratman / USA Today)Degenerate corner
Purveyors of this section know my affinity for filtered situations. I got a doozy this week. The Bengals are one-point underdogs at home despite a winning streak of seven consecutive games (all covers) and going 20-3 against the spread in their last 23. Wild.
I wanted to look back over the last 10 years at teams that finished the season with a winning record but were home underdogs of between zero and three points during the final two weeks of the season. Felt like a rare occurrence. As I said, we are getting specific here.
This returned nine results. In those nine games, the home underdog was 8-1 straight up and 8-1 against the spread.
The lone defeat was Buffalo at home against the Jets in Week 17 of the 2019 season. The Bills lost, 13-6, in a game McDermott was iffy about resting starters and Josh Allen only threw five passes before giving way to Matt Barkley.
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Small sample? Yes. Notable trend? Also, yes.
Around the division
Ravens (10-6): No Lamar Jackson again. Another putrid offensive performance. The Bengals can win the division tonight with a win and if Jackson can’t return next week, it’s hard to see a world the Bengals struggle in Week 18 despite an impressive Baltimore defense.
Steelers (8-8): Great look inside the Steelers’ late surge from Mike DeFabo, including a Festivus storyline! Kenny Pickett made more than a few fans in Cincinnati with his game-winning drive Sunday night. There’s a real scenario where the two-seed Bengals are hosting a seven-seed Pittsburgh in the first round.
Browns (7-9): Deshaun Watson has been bad. Myles Garrett was (briefly) benched. Zac Jackson on what’s left to salvage.
The Athletic Wormhole
Last month, I wrote about what actually happens at halftime, talking to everyone I could about the details of halftime in the NFL, one of the last true sanctuaries. It was fascinating to hear the details.
Kudos to Matt Barrows in San Francisco who took it a step further by getting Kyle Shanahan to let him into the halftime locker room for a game this year to detail everything he sees. Such a great look into the spirit of the team and what all goes down during that period of time often shrouded in secrecy. Awesome story.
Dad Life
The dramatic temperature changes from last week really accentuated the daily struggles to understand the concept of dressing for the weather.
The girls desperately wanted to go outside and play in the snow when the wind chill is negative-25. The resistance to bundling up was comical, along with the standard quoting of Elsa from “Frozen” along the way: “The cold doesn’t bother me anyway.”
The trip outside lasted five minutes. Turns out the cold is quite bothersome.
Then the temperatures are going to reach the mid-60s. You know what that means getting dressed for daycare: ear muffs, parka, snow boots.
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Cool.
Wrapping it up
Posted this on Twitter, but I wanted to drop it here as well. The best of the best from 2022 goes to Meg Vogel. I will always remember this video as long as I live when thinking about what last season meant to this city.
While everyone is dropping their lists of bests from 2022, I'll just say this video produced by @MegVogelphoto is a distant No. 1 around these parts, in my opinion. A truly masterful encapsulation of what sports can mean to people and a city. https://t.co/ouzW5MHzBp
— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) December 31, 2022
z(Top photo: Timothy Ludwig / Getty Images)
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