As I watched it live on Saturday night, the result seemed clear to me. Max Holloway deserved to win that decision against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 251. But with two out of the three judges (and a handful of media members) calling it the other way, I had to concede that I might be wrong.
So I did what anyone with a little time on his hands and access to the pay-per-view on ESPN+ would do. I made myself some coffee and sat down for a rewatch, this time with the sound turned off and my focus entirely on the action.
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Time to get to the bottom of who really deserved to win this fight. Or, failing that, at least enjoy 25 minutes of extremely good fighting action from two of the best 145-pounders in the world.
Round 1
Even with two guys who have already spent 25 minutes in the cage together, it’s reasonable to expect some feeling out in the early going. But as this round wears on, it’s Holloway who’s clearly doing more and taking control. He’s keeping Volkanovski on the outside, forcing him to back up and circle around the perimeter of the cage. He’s mostly winning the leg kick battle, which you knew was going to be important after the first fight. He even stings Volkanovski with a straight right and mimes a little wobble routine to make sure everyone sees it. And just in case there was any doubt? A head kick in the final 10 seconds to briefly drop Volkanovski to a knee should make the case nicely.
10-9 Holloway
HEAD KICK! 👀@BlessedMMA lands a perfect kick to end RD 1️⃣.#UFC251 is LIVE on ESPN+ PPV ➡️ https://t.co/2F9xYFynoh #InAbuDhabi | @VisitAbuDhabi pic.twitter.com/LHUxkQ31KV
— UFC (@ufc) July 12, 2020
Round 2
Volkanovski clearly wants to get his kicking game going more in this round, and to some extent it’s working. Still, a couple times he gets caught standing still in Holloway’s range and the former champ makes him pay with uppercuts and knees. That red lump under Volkanovski’s left eye is growing. Even when Volkanovski lands cleanly, Holloway no-sells it for the judges and the cameras, acting like he barely noticed.
It’s a closer round, but again Holloway clinches it in the waning seconds, dropping Volkanovski to a knee once more, this time with a right hand uppercut. You can see the frustration growing along with the bruises as Volkanovski returns to his corner.
10-9 Holloway
Round 3
The pivotal round of the fight. Volkanovski seems like he realizes that he needs to adjust his tactics or else he’ll end up letting Holloway control the distance all night. He tries a few different things in the first half of this round to address that problem, including bullying Holloway back to the fence for the first thing even resembling a takedown attempt by either man so far. Holloway fights off that clinch and lands on the break, but then Volkanovski gets his left hand working.
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Between the jab and the left hook, he lands about four or five good lefts just in the final two minutes or so of this round. He’s using it to disrupt Holloway’s rhythm and stop his attacks before he can start them, and it might just be the difference in the round.
10-9 Volkanovski
Round 4
A tougher round to score than I initially thought while watching live. Volkanovski’s left hand continues to do good work for him, both as an entry to solve the distance problem and also to do damage. It’s the most versatile weapon he has, and he’s using it to attack the head and body, alternating between the jab and the hook and keeping Holloway guessing. But Holloway is still very much holding his own here.
This is the round where Volkanovski gets his first takedown, but I’m not inclined to give much weight to it because Holloway pops right back up before Volkanovski can advance position or even land a single strike. Holloway scores with kicks and knees and that long right hand. It’s in the final 30 seconds, though, that Volkanovski really starts getting some back. Sheesh. Harder than I expected.
10-9 Volkanovski
Alexander Volkanovski utilized takedowns on Max Holloway to win late rounds at UFC 251 on Saturday. (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Round 5
Volkanovski seems adamant about getting some takedowns in the final round, possibly because he’s worried that the judges might be missing some of the subtler aspects of the fight. He gets his first one of this round about halfway in, but again he can’t do a single thing with it before Holloway is back to his feet. The striking exchanges are still very even here, with Volkanovski landing more overall, but Holloway stringing together combinations that seem to be finding Volkanovski by the end.
I know I’ve already made this observation a time or two, but man, it’s just so damn close. A round like this, everyone is watching closely during the final minute, the final 30 seconds, the final 10 seconds. Just looking for someone to set themselves apart. Which is why it’s unfortunate for Holloway that he goes for a throw and ends up on bottom to end the round, with Volkanovski landing his first ground strikes of the bout as the horn sounds to end it.
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10-9 Volkanovski
As will sometimes happen, my opinion on the outcome changed with a second (and totally muted) viewing. But even now I feel like I could go back and convince myself to give either the third or fourth to Holloway if I really wanted to. It really was that close.
I think there’s also a psychological effect to watching the rematch live when the guy who lost the first fight comes out and starts winning rounds to start the second fight. You see one round for Holloway, then another, and then it’s easier to get swept up in the surprise and the momentum and see more and more for him.
But you know what makes this a really difficult one? It’s that Holloway very clearly won two rounds, in part by stinging Volkanovski badly enough to drop him to a knee in each of the first two frames. On the flip side, all the rounds Volkanovski won were by much slimmer margins and much less emphatic gestures. I can’t quite get myself to give Holloway a 10-8 in either of those first two rounds, but he definitely set himself apart in those more than Volkanovski did at any point in the fight.
If I were Holloway, I’d probably leave this one feeling like the judges did me wrong. But if I were Volkanovski, I’d probably feel like I got off to a rough start and battled my way back to win a close one in the championship rounds. Either view is totally valid. This fight was too close to be anything resembling a robbery. Not that that would ease your pain all that much if you were Holloway right now, looking at an 0-2 record against the current champ and wondering where you go from here.
(Top photo: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
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